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ETH Up/Down · temporal mispricing signals

Live signals across Polymarket’s ETH Up or Down markets (4H · 1H · 15M · 5M). When two markets that resolve at the same minute price the same outcome differently — beyond what their different starting prices explain — that gap shows up here. Directional signals — not riskless arbitrage.

Opportunity radar

A pair is comparable only during its overlap window — the final stretch when the shorter market runs alongside the longer one (spec §7: 4H-vs-1H in the last hour, 1H-vs-15M in the last 15 minutes, 15M-vs-5M in the last 5). Cards below are pairs in their window right now; the strip shows when the next comparisons go live.

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Markets we’re tracking

Every live ETH Up/Down market, grouped by the minute it resolves — closest first.

How to read this

Each market resolves UP if ETH ends at or above its own “price to beat” — the Chainlink ETH/USD price the instant its window opened. Two same-expiry markets have different strikes, so they can legitimately price differently. Price diff = live ETH minus that market’s strike (green: ETH above, UP winning; amber: below). The bar shows the DOWN/UP split. Prices via Pyth — display-grade; resolution uses Chainlink. Thresholds are editable in Settings and apply from the scanner’s next run.

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How they went — expired windows

Every compared window after expiry: the biggest spread it showed, its strike gap, how each leg resolved, and whether the naive trade (buy UP on whichever market priced it cheaper) would have paid. Legs resolving differently means the spread was justified — ETH finished between the two strikes.

No expired windows recorded yet — history builds up as markets close.
Not financial advice · not riskless arbitrage. These are directional “temporal mispricing” signals: the compared markets (e.g. 4H vs 1H) share an expiry minute but are different events, so a spread is not a guaranteed profit. Data is sourced from Polymarket’s public API and may be delayed or incomplete. Trading prediction markets carries risk and is restricted in some jurisdictions (Polymarket prohibits trading by US persons and others) — you are responsible for compliance. ethfund does not custody funds or place orders on your behalf in this build.